{"id":1210,"date":"2026-04-15T07:29:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T07:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alqasignal.com\/?p=1210"},"modified":"2026-04-15T08:23:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T08:23:55","slug":"%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b6%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%af%d9%85%d8%ac-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%84%d9%88%d9%83%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alqasignal.com\/en\/%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b6%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%af%d9%85%d8%ac-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%84%d9%88%d9%83%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%85\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0636\u0627\u0621: \u062f\u0645\u062c \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a 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\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u0639\u064a\u0646.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0641\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639\u0629: \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u0639<\/strong><strong> (Prospect Theory)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0637\u0648\u0651\u0631 <strong>\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u0644 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646<\/strong> \u0648<strong>\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0648\u0633 \u062a\u0641\u064a\u0631\u0633\u0643\u064a<\/strong> \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u0639 \u0643\u0645\u0646\u0638\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629\u060c \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0628\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629\u064b \u0628\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0641\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629. \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u0641 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0646\u0628\u063a\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u062a\u062e\u0630\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644<\/strong>. \u062a\u0643\u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a <strong>\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629<\/strong> \u0648<strong>\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u062c\u0633\u0651\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062d\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p>\u062a\u064f\u0639\u0631\u0651\u064e\u0641 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0631\u0643\u0627\u0626\u0632 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639\u064a\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Reference Dependence):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u064a\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0646\u0638\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0648\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629\u064b \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u2013 \u0648\u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0648\u0641\u0642 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0642\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Loss Aversion):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u064a\u0651\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0643\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u064a\u0634\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0623\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0643\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064d \u0644\u0647\u0627. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0648\u0636\u064a\u062d \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629:<br \/>\n( \\upsilon(w) = w^{0.5} ) \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 ( ( w \\ge 0 ) )<br \/>\n\u0648<br \/>\n( \\upsilon(w) = -2(-w)^{0.5} ) \u0644\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 ( ( w &lt; 0 ) ).<br \/>\n\u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 2 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u062a\u064f\u062f\u0631\u064e\u0643 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0634\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644\u0629<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Diminishing Sensitivity):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u0639\u0651\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u064a\u0651\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 (\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0643\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0648\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0645\u0631\u0629)\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062d\u062f\u0651\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u064a\u0651\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 (\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0633\u0639\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062c\u0646\u0651\u0628 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0624\u0643\u062f\u0629).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u062a\u064f\u0643\u0645\u0651\u0650\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629\u064e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 <strong>\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629\u064f \u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644<\/strong>\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0635\u0641 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u064f\u0633\u0646\u0650\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u0648\u0632\u0627\u0646\u064b\u0627 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a. \u064a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0632\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u064b\u0627<\/strong> (\u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0641\u0633\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0635\u064a\u0628)\u060c \u0648<strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0632\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639\u0629<\/strong>. \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u0648\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0631\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0635\u064a\u0628 \u0648\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646\u061b \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u064f\u0628\u0627\u0644\u064e\u063a \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0625\u0646 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626: \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Limits to Arbitrage)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0643\u0641\u0621 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0633\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0623\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626 \u0646\u0627\u062c\u0645 \u0639\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0641\u0648\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u064a\u0646 (Arbitrageurs). \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u060c <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u062e\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641<\/strong>. \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u201c\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629\u201d \u062a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0641\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0651\u0642 \u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p>\u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0648\u062f \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062a<\/strong><strong> (Fundamental Risk):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0642\u062f \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0650\u062d \u0628\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0634\u0648\u0641 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631\u0647\u060c \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u201c\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629\u201d \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u062e\u0628\u0631 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639 (\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u0641\u0627\u062c\u0623\u0629 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0627\u062d \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629)\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062c\u0628\u0631\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u063a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u062d\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064a\u0646<\/strong><strong> (Noise-Trader Risk):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0645\u0651\u0630\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0634\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u062f\u064a \u0644\u0648\u0646\u063a\u060c \u062a\u0646\u0634\u0623 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649. \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0630\u0648\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0631\u0624\u0648\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u064f\u062c\u0628\u064e\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0635\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0632\u0647\u0645 \u0628\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630<\/strong><strong> (Implementation Costs):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 <strong>\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0634\u0648\u0641<\/strong>\u060c \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062b\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u201c\u0627\u0644\u0636\u063a\u0637 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u0626\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0634\u0648\u0641\u201d (Short Squeeze).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u0635\u0644 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 <strong>Palm<\/strong> \u0639\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645 <strong>3Com<\/strong> \u0639\u0627\u0645 2000\u061b \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0648\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 Palm \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0646\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u060c \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 3Com \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629<\/strong> \u2013 \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u0629 \u2013 \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u062a \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0642\u064a\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0630\u0643\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647.<\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0623\u0631\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0635\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0631\u0629 \u2013 \u0633\u064a\u064f\u0641\u0635\u0651\u064e\u0644 \u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u2013 \u0644\u062a\u062a\u0631\u0633\u0651\u062e \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0651\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u062a\u0633\u0645\u062d <strong>\u0642\u064a\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629<\/strong> \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u2013 \u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u2013 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633 \u0648\u0645\u064f\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644. \u0641\u0647\u0645 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0645\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0633\u0645 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0630\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642.<br \/>\n\u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u062a\u0645\u064a\u064a\u0632 \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629<\/strong> \u0648<strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a\u0629<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064b\u0627: \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a. \u0648\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0628<\/strong> \u0648\u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0639\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u0629 \u0639\u0645\u064a\u0642\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0628\u0631 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0645\u060c \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0636\u0628\u0627\u0637\u064b\u0627<\/strong>. \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u064a\u062e\u0644\u0642 \u062a\u0634\u0648\u0651\u0647\u064b\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u064b\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u2013 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0633\u064a\u064f\u0646\u0627\u0642\u064e\u0634 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 5 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u062a\u0647 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0642\u0627\u062f<\/strong><strong> (Belief Perseverance)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Conservatism Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u064a\u062a\u0645\u0633\u0651\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0624\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u0647\u0630\u0627 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629<\/strong> \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u062d\u0631\u0651\u0643 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a \u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645 (Momentum) \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0633\u062a\u064f\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 4.3.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0643\u064a\u062f<\/strong><strong> (Confirmation Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0632\u0646\u0647\u0627\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0629. \u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0648\u0638\u0641 \u064a\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u201c\u0636\u062c\u0629 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a\u0629\u201d \u062a\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0642\u0646\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u0647\u0627.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644<\/strong><strong> (Representativeness Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0635\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u062d\u0643\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0637\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u0629. \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u064a <strong>\u0625\u0647\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a<\/strong> (Base-Rate Neglect)\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0639\u060c \u0648<strong>\u0625\u0647\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629<\/strong> (Sample-Size Neglect)\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u064f\u0642\u064a\u0651\u0650\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0635\u0646\u062f\u0648\u0642 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0636\u0639\u0629 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u064a \u0641\u0642\u0637.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642<\/strong><strong> (Hindsight Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0642\u0627\u062f\u060c \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u062b\u060c \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 (\u201c\u0643\u0646\u062a \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0633\u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b\u201d). \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645\u0651 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u0645\u0651\u0644 \u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/strong><strong> (Information-Processing Biases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644<\/strong><strong> (Anchoring and Adjustment):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u201c\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0621\u201d \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0627\u062d \u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0634\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0622\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639 \u0638\u0647\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0647\u0646\u064a\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Mental Accounting):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0628\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u063a\u0631\u0636\u0647\u0627 (\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u201c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u201d \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u201c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629\u201d). \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0625\u0647\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0637 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0637\u064a\u0631<\/strong><strong> (Framing Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u064a\u062a\u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u062f \u0628\u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a. \u0641\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0642\u062f \u064a\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0651\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u062c\u0630\u0631\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0623\u064f\u0637\u0650\u0631\u064e\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629\u060c \u0631\u063a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u064b\u0627: \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0630\u0651\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0651\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0639\u0627\u0628<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0633\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0639\u0631<\/strong>. \u0648\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0639\u0628 \u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629\u064b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0639\u064d. \u0641\u064a \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u064a\u062c\u0628 <strong>\u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0639\u0627\u0628 \u0622\u062b\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627<\/strong> \u0636\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0636\u0628\u0637\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0648\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062b\u0642\u064a\u0641 \u0641\u0642\u0637.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Loss Aversion):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a \u0642\u0648\u064a \u0644\u062a\u062c\u0646\u0651\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u062d\u062c\u0631 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u0639. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0633\u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 4.4\u060c \u064a\u0639\u062f\u0651 \u0645\u062d\u0631\u0651\u0643\u064b\u0627 \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u064b\u0627 <strong>\u0644\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635<\/strong><strong> (Disposition Effect)<\/strong> \u2013 \u0623\u064a \u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0628\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0643\u0631\u064b\u0627.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Overconfidence):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645. \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0641\u0631\u0627\u0637 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0639\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0639\u064a\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633<\/strong><strong> (Self-Control Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0632\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u062e\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0641\u0636\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062e\u0635\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u064a\u0647\u062f\u062f \u062a\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0641\u0636\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0647\u0646<\/strong><strong> (Status Quo Bias):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u062a\u0641\u0636\u064a\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0625\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0639 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u064a. \u0642\u062f \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0628\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u2013 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0623\u0648\u0631\u0627\u0642 \u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u0648\u062b\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0645\u0639 \u062e\u0637\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0644\u0645\u062c\u0631\u062f \u062a\u062c\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0637 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u064a\u0631.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0634\u0643\u0651\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0641\u0647\u0645 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0643\u0648\u0651\u0650\u0646\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0633\u0646\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629: \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639\u0629<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0632\u0627\u0645\u0646\u0629 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u0636\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629. \u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 <strong>\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644<\/strong> \u062a\u064f\u0639\u0631\u064e\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629 (Market Anomalies). \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0651\u0644 \u0623\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a \u0636\u062f \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0641\u0651\u0631 \u0631\u0627\u0628\u0637\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648<\/strong><strong> (Value vs. Growth Anomaly)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u064a <strong>\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Value Effect)<\/strong>. \u0641\u0642\u062f \u0648\u062c\u062f\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0623\u0646 <strong>\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629<\/strong> \u2013 \u0623\u064a \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0636\u0627\u0639\u0641\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u0643\u0631\u0631 \u0631\u0628\u062d\u064a\u0629 (P\/E) \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0643\u0631\u0631 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062f\u0641\u062a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 \u2013 \u062d\u0642\u0642\u062a \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646 <strong>\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u201c\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0642\u0629<\/strong><strong>\u201d (Glamour)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0641\u064a <strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 (\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 3.2.2)<\/strong>\u061b \u0625\u0630 \u064a\u0646\u062c\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u0635\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0641\u064a\u064f\u0641\u0631\u0650\u0637\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u064a\u062f \u0648\u064a\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062e\u0637\u0623\u064b \u0623\u0646 \u201c\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u0626\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u201d. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639\u0647\u0645 \u0644\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u064e\u063a \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u060c \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u062f \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0633\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639.<br \/>\n\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0637\u0647 <strong>\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629<\/strong><strong> HML<\/strong> \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0641\u0627\u0645\u0627-\u0641\u0631\u0646\u0634 (\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 5.2) \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0645\u064a.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645<\/strong><strong> (Momentum) <\/strong><strong>\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644<\/strong><strong> (Long-Term Reversal)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0637\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u062f\u0647\u0634\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645<\/strong><strong> (Momentum):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0623\u062f\u0651\u062a \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621\u064b \u062c\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631 3 \u0625\u0644\u0649 12 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0639\u064a\u0641.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644<\/strong><strong> (Long-Term Reversal):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0622\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0623\u0637\u0648\u0644 (3\u20135 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a)\u060c \u064a\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0633 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0637\u061b \u0625\u0630 \u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0650\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u062a\u0641\u0648\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0628\u062d\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064b\u0627.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u064a\u064f\u0641\u0633\u0651\u064e\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u062f\u0648\u062c \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a \u0642\u0648\u064a:<br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u064a\u064f\u0639\u0632\u064e\u0649 \u0625\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/strong> \u0628\u0641\u0639\u0644 <strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0629<\/strong> (\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 3.2.2)\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0639\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u060c \u064a\u062c\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0647\u060c \u0641\u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Overreaction)<\/strong> \u0645\u062f\u0641\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0640 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0625\u0631\u062c\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062c\u0627\u062d \u0644\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a<\/strong><strong> (Self-Attribution)<\/strong>. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u062a\u062a\u062e\u0637\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0647\u0651\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0651\u0635 \u0648\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u201c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0632\u064a\u0646\u0648<\/strong><strong>\u201d (Disposition &amp; House Money Effects)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0637\u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642 \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0651\u0635<\/strong><strong> (Disposition Effect):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0647\u0648 \u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0628\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0643\u0631\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0642\u062a\u064b\u0627 \u0623\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0630\u064f\u0643\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 3.3.2\u060c \u064a\u0639\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639 <strong>\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629<\/strong> \u0648<strong>\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062f\u0645<\/strong><strong> (Regret Aversion)<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u0639 (\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 2.2). \u064a\u0633\u0639\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0643\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0624\u0643\u062f\u060c \u0644\u0643\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0623\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u201c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0632\u064a\u0646\u0648<\/strong><strong>\u201d (House Money Effect):<\/strong><br \/>\n\u064a\u0635\u0641 \u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u0642\u0642\u0648\u0627 \u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d\u0648\u0627 <strong>\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u064a\u0644\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\u0629<\/strong>. \u062a\u0641\u0633\u0651\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u064f\u0646\u0634\u0626 \u201c\u0648\u0633\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629\u201d\u060c \u0641\u062a\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u060c \u0648\u062a\u064f\u0639\u062a\u0628\u064e\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0625\u064a\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0631\u0649 \u0643\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u201c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0632\u064a\u0646\u0648\u201d \u0644\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0631\u0623\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644\u064a.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062b\u0651\u0642\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0645 <strong>\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u062a\u064f\u0648\u0635\u0650\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0631\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u064f\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0638\u0648\u0627\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u0651\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u201c\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627<\/strong><strong>\u201d<\/strong> \u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u201c\u0643\u064a\u0641<\/strong><strong>\u201d<\/strong> \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0631\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0638\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629 \u2013 \u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0637\u064f\u0648\u0651\u0650\u0631\u062a \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0642\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0622\u062b\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0648\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0624\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644<\/strong><strong> (Factor Models): <\/strong><strong>\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0644\u0643\u064a \u0646\u0643\u0645\u0651\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629\u060c \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0632 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0623\u062d\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644<\/strong><strong> CAPM<\/strong>.<br \/>\n\u062a\u062d\u062f\u0651\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c <strong>\u0641\u0627\u0645\u0627\u2013\u0641\u0631\u0646\u0634 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644<\/strong> CAPM \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u0638\u0647\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u062a\u064f\u0641\u0633\u0651\u064e\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u064a\u064a\u0646: \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0643\u0627\u0644\u0622\u062a\u064a:<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f = \u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 + \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062c\u0645 (SMB) + \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 (HML)<\/p>\n<p>\u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0645\u062b\u0651\u0644 <strong>SMB (Small Minus Big)<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0645\u062b\u0651\u0644 <strong>HML (High Minus Low)<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 (\u0630\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062f\u0641\u062a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a \u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639\u0629) \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648.<br \/>\n\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0648\u0641\u0631\u0646\u0634 \u0623\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0651\u0644 \u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0646 <strong>\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Distress Risk)<\/strong>\u060c \u064a\u0641\u0633\u0651\u0631 \u0623\u0646\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0643\u0640 <strong>\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629<\/strong>. \u0641\u0645\u062b\u0644\u064b\u0627\u060c \u064a\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0637 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 HML \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062c\u0645 \u0639\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644<\/strong> \u0644\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u2013 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0648\u064a\u0633\u062a\u0647\u064a\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 (\u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 4.2).<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629: \u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0644\u0646\u0643\u0645\u0651\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/strong> (\u0627\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 4.3)\u060c \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0642\u064a\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0627 \u063a\u0646\u0649 \u0639\u0646\u0647\u0627.<\/p>\n<p>\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u0644\u0629 <strong>ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average)<\/strong> \u0635\u064f\u0645\u0651\u0650\u0645\u062a \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a<\/strong> \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u201c\u062a\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0639 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u201d \u0644\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a<\/strong> \u064a\u062f\u0644\u0651 \u0639\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637<\/strong><strong> (Mean Reversion)<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0631\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 (Overreaction).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0630\u0648 \u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0648 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643<\/strong><strong> (Cointegration)<\/strong>\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0635\u0641 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0648 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0628\u062a\u0643\u0648\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0628 \u062e\u0637\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629. \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0634\u0643\u0651\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u062a <strong>\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0648\u0627\u062c<\/strong><strong> (Pairs Trading)<\/strong>\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u062a\u063a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0642\u062a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0641\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0639\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0637\u0629.<br \/>\n\u062a\u064f\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062b\u0644 <strong>CADF (Cointegrated Augmented Dickey-Fuller)<\/strong> \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0645\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong><strong> (Volatility) <\/strong><strong>\u0648\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0638\u0645\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Regime Shifts)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a <strong>\u0628\u0644\u0627\u0643\u2013\u0634\u0648\u0644\u0632<\/strong> \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0641\u0627\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0648\u062d \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 <strong>\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong><strong> (Volatility Smile)<\/strong>\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0645\u0646\u064a \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630. \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u064b\u0627\u061b \u0628\u0644 <strong>\u064a\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0630\u0628\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0645\u0639<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a<\/strong><strong> (Stochastic Volatility)<\/strong> \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c <strong>\u0647\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0646<\/strong><strong> (Heston)<\/strong>\u060c \u0648<strong>\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a<\/strong><strong> (Local Volatility)<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u062f\u0648\u0628\u064a\u0631 (Dupire)\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0643\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a \u0635\u0631\u064a\u062d. \u0648\u0628\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0628\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0626\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062a\u0633\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0647\u064a\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0643\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0629<\/strong><strong> (Hidden Markov Models \u2013 HMMs)<\/strong> \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0651\u0644 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0638\u0645\u0629 (Regimes).<br \/>\n\u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 HMM \u0628\u0625\u0633\u0646\u0627\u062f \u0643\u0644 \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u2013 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u2013 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u201c\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0646\u201d \u0645\u062b\u0644:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u062f\u0628\u0651\u064a (Bear) \u0630\u0648 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064d\/\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0623\u0648<\/li>\n<li>\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u062b\u0648\u0631\u064a (Bull) \u0630\u0648 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628 \u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\/\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u064a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0630\u0644\u0643 <strong>\u0628\u0643\u0645\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0648\u0641\u0651\u0631 \u0631\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u062a\u062a\u0641\u0648\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p>\u062a\u064f\u0639\u064e\u062f\u0651 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0631\u0624\u0649 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630<\/strong>\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0651\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0647\u062c \u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"6\">\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u062a\u0645\u0629: \u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u062d\u0651\u062f \u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0643\u0641\u0624\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0623\u0646\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0645 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a. <strong>\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629<\/strong>\u061b \u0628\u0644 \u0647\u064a \u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0651\u0628 \u0644\u0643\u0644\u0651\u064d \u0645\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0634\u0631<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0635\u062f\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0647\u064a \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 <strong>\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a<\/strong>. \u0641\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630 \u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0641\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0638\u0648\u0627\u0647\u0631 \u0639\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0628\u0644 <strong>\u0645\u0644\u0645\u062d\u064b\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0626\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0634\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631<\/strong>.<br \/>\n\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u2013 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u062e\u0645 \u2013 \u0647\u064a <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0651\u064e\u0639 \u0644\u062a\u062c\u0644\u0651\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0634\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u0644\u0630\u0627 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 <strong>\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0645\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c<\/strong>\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0641\u064a <strong>\u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u062d\u0651\u062f<\/strong>. \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0633\u062a\u064e\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0640 \u201c\u0635\u0646\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0642 \u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621\u201d \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629\u060c<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0644 \u0643\u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 <strong>\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0648\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u063a\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u064a\u0629<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062e\u0644\u0642\u0647\u0627 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